EFEK DOMINO DARI PERANG DAGANG AS-CHINA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

Dear Filzah Nurhaeni deaa — Wed, 29 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This research aims to analyze the domino effect caused by the US-China Trade War on the Indonesian economy. This research uses the concept of domino effect and the approach of international political economy theory and hegemony theory, as well as literature study method with descriptive-qualitative analysis. The findings show that the trade war that occurred between the United States and China in 2018-2024 had a significant influence on the international scope of the economy, including influencing the economy in Indonesia as well. The domino effect that occurs in Indonesia, consists of changes in exchange rates, decreased exports, diversion of investment, and creating new opportunities for Indonesia. In addition, global economic uncertainty has caused the value of the rupiah currency to be depressed since 2018. Although Bank Indonesia intervened and implemented monetary measures to maintain stability. However, the movement of the rupiah exchange rate in 2021-202 is still in the weak category due to the development of trade wars, changes in the direction of interest rate policy at the global level, and uncertainty in world economic conditions.

ANALISIS KERJASAMA KEAMANAN FILIPINA DENGAN AMERIKA SERIKAT DAN CHINA DALAM KONFLIK KEPULAUAN SPRATLY (2016-2024)

Grachella Satriana — Wed, 15 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The Spratly Islands dispute has emerged as a major source of tension in Southeast Asian geopolitics due to China's increasingly assertive territorial claims and artificial island-building activities. This study examines how the leadership transition from Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022) to Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (2022-2024) fundamentally altered Philippine security cooperation with the United States in the context of the Spratly Islands conflict. Using a qualitative research methodology with explanatory analysis, this study integrates Neoclassical Realism theory with the concepts of bandwagoning and balancing to analyze how domestic factors mediate foreign policy responses to consistent external pressures. The findings suggest that despite facing identical structural threats from Chinese expansion in the Spratly Islands, the Philippines has adopted very different strategic approaches under different leaderships. Duterte's bandwagoning strategy, characterized by "quiet diplomacy" and economic accommodation, has succeeded in attracting Chinese investment commitments but has failed to prevent China's continued militarization of artificial islands and the consolidation of de facto control over the disputed territory. In contrast, Marcos Jr.'s balancing strategy, which emphasized "transparency diplomacy" and the strengthening of US alliances through expanded access to military bases and increased joint exercises, effectively restored international credibility and enhanced deterrence, but actually increased the risk of direct confrontation. This research validates the core proposition of Neoclassical Realism that domestic factors serve as crucial mediating variables shaping how small states respond to external pressures.

Jurnal Sosial-Politika

EFEK DOMINO DARI PERANG DAGANG AS-CHINA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

ANALISIS KERJASAMA KEAMANAN FILIPINA DENGAN AMERIKA SERIKAT DAN CHINA DALAM KONFLIK KEPULAUAN SPRATLY (2016-2024)